I posed this question to one of the most knowledgeable baseball fans I know, Ed Stern. Ed has followed baseball for over 70 years and teaches me something about the game every time we talk. His answer, well thought out and analytical follows below.

Also check out Ed’s Memories of the Game in the Classic Audio section of the site. Just type in his name in the search box on the Classic Audio page and listen to fabulous stories of baseball from the 30’s to the present.

click read more and tell me what you think.The Giants are now 12 and 1. The Yankees are 10 and 2 but no one

questions whether they are for real. There must be a reason for that and

I will try to unlock it.

Background to keep in mind—the overachieving Giants of last year

came within eight outs of being the Champs. Over the winter they dumped

a significant portion of their overachieving club and added a third

baseman, a right fielder, a center fielder and a second baseman. They

traded their best starting pitcher for a first year left handed pitcher

who has yet to win more than 12 games. They lost a Hall of Fame player,

Kent, who, at one point in the season, was carrying the ball club,

along, of course, with Bonds.

When the spring training season started, if one was asked to

evaluate the chances for this year, one would start with the pitching

staff. The staff included two starters, Hernandez and Jensen, from last

years’s rotation. If one took a close look at their stats one would

quickly conclude that the two of them may have been the two worst

starting pitchers in the league. They each put more men on base, in an

equivalent nine innings, than any other starting pitcher in the league.

The closer, Nen, had undergone surgery and no one knew the results—and

still don’t. Moss, who was received in the trade for Ortiz, was, and for

the most part, still is,unproven. There was small reason to look at this

staff and be optimistic. Before even contemplating the effect of all the

other major changes in the club, the pitching scene, by itself, would

have relegated the team to a position behind LA and Arizona. LA looked

as tho it may have repaired the damage to their pitching staff with a

healthy Brown and Dreifort, along with Nomo and a very good closer in

Gagne. Arizona still had Johnson and Schilling, altho some of us

questioned whether Johnson might be suspect because of his age. The

Giants looked like a distant third with an inadequate rotation.

After contemplating the pitching one had to take a look at the

position players lost and gained over the winter. The one most damaging

loss, undeniably, was Kent. How does one replace a second baseman

who,over a consistent 6 year period, has never failed to drive in over

100 runs each year? The Giants answer was to sign Alfonzo to a long term

contract for mucho bucks. They failed to take into consideration that

Alfonzo, in his two previous seasons with the Mets, had driven in fewer

runs, combined, than Kent had driven in in his one season. They signed

Grissom to play center field, apparently overlooking that LA thought so

little of his ability to hit right handed pitching that they platooned

him with Roberts. They added Cruz in right field, who is clearly an

improvement over Sanders. They did the best they could by signing Durham

to replace Kent. Durham is a different kind of player but an asset

nevertheless.

During spring training they made a big improvement by disposing of

Hernandez. To replace him they brought up Ainsworth.

Basically, this was the team that started the season. A pitching

staff without a closer and with a rookie, albeit one highly thought of,

in the rotation and a second year pitcher who had won 12 games last year

in place of the best starter on the team. An aging catcher, a first

baseman who hit .240 in each of his last two years, a center fielder who

can’t hit right handed pitching, a shortstop who probably had his career

year two years ago with limited range in the field,a third baseman who

played with a bad back the past two years and drives in 50 runs each

year,a second baseman who is yet to prove that he can field the

position, to such an extent that, in the American League last year he

was used as a DH.

The prospect for the new year was not encouraging.

Thirteen games into the new season the Giants are seven games ahead

of LA, having just swept a three game series. They are nine (count

them!) games ahead of Arizona.

Are they for real? Is it simply an aberration or is there a

rational explanation which bodes well for the remainder of the year?

The first place to look is at the pitching, where they looked

particularly vulnerable. Hernandez is gone. Jensen is on his way out.

Ainsworth is in the rotation and in his outings this far there is some

evidence that he may, in fact, be a major league pitcher of merit.

Apparently, Foppert is going to take up the other spot. He is a largely

unknown factor at this time. He pitched two very impressive innings last

night, but one might want something more than two innings on which to

make an evaluation of the kid’s future. However, he pitched well in the

spring and comes with glowing reports from everyone who has seen him. In

one of the spring games, at a time when it was clear the Giants were

going to send him down to Fresno at the start of the season,the opposing

American League manager,tongue in cheek, asked whether he could borrow

him for a few years until the Giants decided they were ready to use

him. If the Giants intend to put him in the rotation, and it appears

that they do, carrying two rookies in the starting rotation may not

inspire much confidence. However, these two may be unusual enough so

that they can get away with it. The A’s tried something not very

dissimilar and were successful with it.

The other questionable pitcher in the rotation is Moss. He had a

good outing last night. He still throws too many pitches and has trouble

getting into the late innings and that is not helpful for the bullpen.

Schmidt is a good pitcher today and may become a very good pitcher

before the year is over. He,too, throws too many pitches and runs out of

steam too soon. Rueter has, over the years, become a better pitcher

than one might have expected. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him eat

up more innings than he was previously capable of. Parenthetically, the

thought of using Hernandez in the 7th game rather than Rueter continues

to provide material for nightmares. A fairly typical Baker mistake, the

kind Alou doesn’t make.

The bullpen, even with the uncertainty respecting Nen, looks

strong. Nathan is a very welcome addition. His ultimate role has yet to

be determined. Worrell may inspire more confidence in one than Nen, He

is not as overpowering but, on the other hand, he doesn’t blow sky high

on not infrequent occasions as Nen does.

The bottom line, as far as the pitching goes, will ultimately

depend on the ability of the two young pitchers to throw at a major

league winning level.

Arriving at a judgment respecting the position players is not an

easy task. Bonds, Cruz, Santiago and Snow are providing the hitting so

far. Snow’s history is not encouraging but this is the year he becomes

a free agent.He doesn’t need to hit ,340 but .275 with some power would

be a big help. Santiago seems to get better as he gets older. He has a

more than adequate backup in Torrealba. This is the Giant’s catcher for

the future. Great defensively and he can hit well enough for a catcher.

Cruz is an improvement in right field and may actually be the right

fielder the team has been looking for. Grissom can’t hit but the team

will carry him for his fielding.

Somehow, the sum of the parts seems less than the overall total.

It’s difficult to understand. It was difficult to understand how they

ended up last year as well as they did. I do think that Alou is a very

strong presence. The team has a winning feeling about it. Not a very

scientific approach. The series with LA left that feeling. Also, they

don’t appear tohave a hell of a lot to beat in the division. Arizona may

not provide much opposition. It will be interesting to see how the teams

fare when they first play each other. If Johnson is on the downgrade

forget about Arizona. LA is the competition but they may not hit as well

as the Giants. The Giant’s are a better defensive club. If the pitching

holds up, and I have a sneaking suspicion that it will, and be exciting

in addition, I would wager on the Giants getting into the playoffs.

And I haven’t mentioned Bonds in all this. It may very well be that

Bonds presence does more for the club than the simple numbers show. He

adds a dimension to the aura. It seems as tho the other teams are

constantly worrying about the inevitable appearance of Barry and how are

they going to deal with him when he shows up. And show up he does. It is

difficult to put this into the equation but it is there and it makes the

team a great deal more dangerous.

So, to answer the question. I believe the Giants are real and the

other teams are going to have a very tough time overcoming this twelve

and one start.

Ed