Marty Lurie Talks San Francisco Giants Baseball

Baseball Predictions for 2007

Fans always like to take their shot at predicting the outcome of the pennant race.

MM from Castro Valley California took some time to review his last year’s picks and actually has quite a theory on how the races will turn out in 2007 as you can see when you click below.

Enjoy what follows it’s pretty interesting.


MM’s predictions for the 2007 season:

AL East W L
New York 96 66
Toronto 88 74
Boston 86 76
Baltimore 76 86
Tampa Bay 70 92

AL Central W L
Cleveland 91 71
Minnesota 89 73
Detroit 87 75
Chicago 78 84
Kansas City 66 96

AL West W L
Oakland 89 73
Anaheim 86 76
Seattle 77 85
Texas 75 87

NL East W L
New York 90 72
Atlanta 84 78
Philadelphia 82 80
Florida 75 87
Washington 63 99

NL Central W L
St Louis 85 77
Chicago 83 79
Milwaukee 81 81
Cincinnati 77 85
Houston 76 86
Pittsburgh 72 90

NL West W L
San Diego 88 74
Arizona 85 77
Los Angeles 83 79
Colorado 77 85
San Francisco 75 87

I’ll explain my methods in advance. I run projections for each player all the way down to A-ball and take my best guess at the distribution of playing time. Then I use a couple of Bill James’s statistical tools to determine each team’s run differential. Roughly speaking, each ten runs are worth a game in the standings. (A team that scores ten more runs than it allows should be expected to finish at 82-80. A team that allows 50 more runs than it scores should be expected to finish 76-86.) Say what you will about my projections but don’t say I’m playing favorites. My methods projected five of six division winners correctly last year. (I’d have been six-for-six had the Dodgers won the tie breaker with the Padres in the NL West race.) I ran the comps in March so the more recent injuries to players such as Nick Johnson, Dan Johnson, Estaban Loaiza, and Chris Carpenter weren’t considered. Roger Clemens was ignored entirely. My gut feeling is the Brewers will beat their projection but over the years, I’ve learned to trust the data more than my gut feelings.

And how can the Giants be the flop team of the year? They had losing records each of the past two seasons and they didn’t make any substantial improvements over the winter except in the manager’s chair. They’ll be managed better but they’re still an incredibly old team, now another year older.. Generally speaking, old players don’t get better – they decline. So why should there be any expectations that the Giants will competitive in 2007? A sorry cast of old misfits with no reasonable expectation of winning cannot be a flop.

I picked Grady Sizemore for AL MVP. He’s a highly polished player with a broad base of skills and he’s just about to enter his prime. He mans a high-profile defensive position and plays it very well. With his combination of power, speed and on-base skills plus his spot at the top of a potent lineup, he has the potential to score 140 runs and drive in 100.I’m just surprised a rising star like Sizemore was entirely overlooked by most of the media.
My predictions from last season are reproduced below. Some laughed at my choice of the Twins as the AL Central champs. My placement of the Blue Jays above the Red Sox was also the subject of ridicule. As noted earlier, I nailed every division winner except for the Dodgers who tied with the Padres for the best record in the NL West but had to settle for the wildcard via tiebreaker. That’s two years in a row I picked 5 of the 6 division winners correctly. I predicted that the AL Central would produce its first wildcard winner but I figured it would be the Indians rather than the Tigers. I think everybody on the planet underestimated the Tigers last year. (Many will overestimate them this year.) My comments concerning the Twins and Angels were bull’s-eyes but my Cubs prediction blew up in my face. I think you were a year early on the Indians and a year late on the Twins. I don’t think the Twins have the pitching this year so I expect them to fall short of the division title. The Tribe has a powerhouse offense that will get better when management wakes up and moves Casey Blake to the bench. Also, their bullpen may look weak on the surface but they have some good young arms just begging for bigger roles. Keep an eye on Tom Mastny and Ed Mujica. Once they move into more prominent roles, the Indians bullpen will shift from a weak link to a team strength.


2006 predictions

AL West W L
Oakland 101 61
Texas 81 81
Anaheim 80 82
Seattle 74 88

AL Central W L
Minnesota 90 72
Cleveland 88 74
Chicago 87 75
Detroit 79 83
Kansas City 61 101

New York 93 69
Toronto 85 77
Boston 84 78
Baltimore 73 89
Tampa Bay 71 91

NL West W L
Los Angeles 87 75
Arizona 83 79
San Diego 80 82
San Francisco 74 88
Colorado 68 94

NL Central W L
St. Louis 90 72
Chicago 85 77
Milwaukee 79 83
Houston 80 82
Cincinnati 78 84
Pittsburgh 77 85

NL East W L
New York 87 75
Atlanta 86 76
Philadelphia 85 77
Washington 75 87
Florida 69 93
Castro Valley


1 Randy_Bell { 04.13.07 at 2:27 pm }

I just hope you’re right about our beloved A’s!  The other divisions are interesting but I care most about the A’s of course!  Nice read ..

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