2007 Predictions
Batter Up April 1st, 2007
No one really knows what twists and turns a baseball season will hold. Everyone who follows the game has an opinion as to the outcome: here’s mine.
Pitching and defense still are the two most important factors to consider when looking for a potential champion.
Strong starting pitching is essential, but a strong bull pen is critical to success over the course of the 162 game season.
The American League West promises to be a race to the finish similar to last year when the A’s outlasted the Angels.
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Oakland and Los Angeles both have strong starting staffs. Both have the arms in the ‘pen to end the game successfully.
Both teams struggle to consistently score runs. The Angels push the running game while the A’s wear down the opposition with their patient approach looking for that key hit late in the game.
The A’s and Angels play great baseball against each other. The A’s play championship defense, the Angels don’t.
The real difference: The A’s play better baseball against the AL West.
The A’s beat Seattle 17 times last season. Until the Mariners learn to be patient hitters against the A’s pitching, the A’s will continue to beat Seattle.
Seattle added Horacio Ramirez, Miguel Batista, and Jeff Weaver to its starting staff. No big deal. Seattle can’t touch Rich Harden and Joe Blanton.
Texas simply doesn’t have the pitching to carry them over the long season. I think the Rangers are destined to finish last in the West.
With only Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla as established starting pitchers the Rangers will be lucky to play .500 ball.
The vaunted Texas offense will miss free agents Carlos Lee, Gary Matthews Jr, and Mark DeRosa. Newcomers Kenny Lofton and Sammy Sosa won’t make much of a difference.
The AL Central will be a tight race all year.
The Tigers will be hard pressed to duplicate last year’s Cinderella season. Kenny Rogers is already on the shelf. Justin Verlander is searching for his curve ball. DH Gary Sheffield will help a strong offense.
The Tigers will get their pitching straightened out by July and win the wild card.
Minnesota will win the division. The Twins have a number of young impact pitchers who will be ready to help the club by the all star break. The Twins have the same team on the field that won the division last year. Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, aand Michael Cuddyer are winners.
The White Sox relied on strong pitching when they won then title in ’05. Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Mark Buehrle, and Javier Vazquez are still big names they just don’t pitch as effectively anymore. Closer Bobby Jenks has lost velocity on his fastball. Even with a great offense, the Sox won’t finish above third place.
When the Indians find a reliable five-man bull pen please let me know.
In the AL East, the Yankees simply have to find more starting pitching. It’s always risky to pick against the Bombers, but with question marks Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, and Mike Mussina, anchoring this staff NY won’t dominate in the East.
I expect Roger Clemens to come to the rescue in June, but this time the Rocket will be out of fuel.
Boston has Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Josh Beckett. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have help in the line up from JD Drew and Julio Lugo. If closer Jonathan Papelbon can duplicate last year’s success the BoSox win the East.
Toronto’s pen is a mess. The Jays will score often, but so will their opponents.
Today is April Fool’s day. How appropriate.
0 comments
I don’t wish to appear "contrary", Marty, but I have to disagree with your predictions about the AL West. As much as I hate the Angels, I have to admit they have a clearly superior pitching rotation to the A’s — it is both better and deeper. And they have a comparable bullpen, with Shields and K-Rod to close out games. And unfortunately with Loaiza showing signs of the same old problem with his trapezius, the Angels’ pitching may end up healthier than us too. Also, I’m pretty sure that last year, the A’s had a losing record against both Texas and Anaheim. The only AL-West team they had a winning record against was the Mariners. Had the A’s not so overwhelimingly dominated the Mariners, they would not have won the West.
I am also concerned about this team’s health. Every year I keep thinking, the A’s are going to have better luck and less injuries – but every year, the A’s keep showing me that they are a brittle and fragile team. Until the A’s have a relatively healthy year – although I love this team and root hard for them – I remain unconvinced about their robustness and ability to stay healthy.
I fear it is going to be a long long season and the Angels are going to be very tough to beat, Marty. They just flat-out have better, deeper pitching staff than we do. And we are depending on a piece of glass in Rich Harden: amazing talent, – but breakable, fragile, unable to stay healthy for a full season. We are depending on the A’s version of Prior/Wood to carry us; and that gives A’s fans an uneasy feeling.
I hope I am wrong. I desperately want to be wrong. I hope you prove to be right. Already as I write, the Mariners have beaten us first game with a strong outing by King Felix. Already the Angels have beaten Texas. You say the A’s play better against the West, I hope so; but we lost Zito who pitched so well against our Western opponents. I am not so sure this year.
We’ll see –
Go A’s! – Ran
It’s a long season so let’s revisit the predictions in about a month. Certainly if Loaiza is out there might be problems for the A’s.
Marty
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