Batter Up April 2nd 2006 AL Predictions
Choosing which teams will make the playoffs in 2006 is a very risky proposition.
As I analyze the opening day rosters all the teams look better. Starting pitching has been upgraded throughout all of baseball.
Teams with deep starting rotations and balanced bullpens must be feared over the course of the taxing 162 game season.
Now the “if†factor comes into play.
Click below for more!Now the “if†factor comes into play.
The teams with the fewest “ifsâ€, things that have to break correctly for the club to have success, are my favorites to play in October.
The A’s have fewer ifs than the Angels.
Los Angeles is hoping Darin Erstad has one more productive season before he departs via free agency. Will first baseman Casey Kotchman continue to hit the way he has this spring? Will Garrett Anderson overcome all his physical woes and play a full season? Can the one player the Angels not afford to lose to injuries, Vladimir Guerrero, stay healthy all season? Will closer Francisco Rodriguez regain his velocity? Has Cy Young award winner Bartolo Colon recovered from the arm injury that knocked him out of the 2005 playoffs? Is pitcher John Lackey’s spring soreness something to worry about in April?
Oakland doesn’t have an automatic out in the lineup. If Frank Thomas is healthy the batting order actually becomes scary. With Thomas hitting behind Eric Chavez, the A’s third baseman suddenly looks like a 35-40 home run hitter.
The A’s starting rotation is healthy and ready to go.
The A’s biggest question is which Barry Zito will take the hill opening night? For Oakland to go all the way, Zito has to regain his Cy Young form and not continue be a 100 pitch, six inning pitcher.
Milton Bradley needs to stay healthy. Bradley’s slow spring doesn’t appear to be worrying anyone connected with the team. More importantly Bradley seems to be at ease playing in the Bay Area.
Texas had an off season plan to improve its starting pitching. All looked good until the Rangers learned that Adam Eaton’s finger injury will sideline the righty for three months.
Second year starter Kameron Loe had a great spring, but the entire pitching staff in Arlington is still a huge “ifâ€.
Seattle has a ton of “ifsâ€. If the questions go the Mariners way, good things can happen in the Emerald city.
If the Seattle starting pitching is successful, then the M’s can be a factor in the West.
Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre were two huge disappointments in Seattle last season. If the Seattle offense rebounds, then the Mariners could be the surprise team in the division.
On paper I like the Mariners, too bad they have to play the games.
Cleveland gave the White sox all they could handle before losing the AL Central to the world champs the last week of the season.
The Indians get it done in 2006.
The quartet of Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, and Victor Martinez can match any foursome in the league at the plate.
Cleveland has enough starting pitching to carry the club. The bullpen has hard throwers. The biggest “if� Will closer Bob Wickman make it through one more season?
The White Sox have excellent starters, nice power, and a leaky bullpen. Ozzie Guillen handled the pen expertly last season. Anything short of a 40 save season for closer Bobby Jenks will knock the Sox out.
Minnesota is always the team to fear because of its starting pitching. Johann Santana, Brad Radke, and Carlos Silva can sweep any series. The Twins upgraded an offense that couldn’t score any runs in 2005.
Biggest “ifs�
Big years at the plate from Shannon Stewart, Joe Mauer, Rondell White, Luis Castillo and any player that picks up a bat for Minnesota.
With Joe Nathan closing this team must be watched carefully.
The Yankees have a weekend softball team on offense. Swing from the heels and let it fly.
I’m trusting that by midseason the Bombers will have Roger Clemens and be heading to the playoffs once again.
In Boston, Manny Ramirez might be on his way out if the BoSox stumble into the summer. Keith Foulke left his game on the mound during the 2004 world championship season. The enigmatic Julian Tavarez is being counted on in the pen.
Too many changes this season for the Red Sox.
A’s and Yanks will meet in the ALCS.
Everyone in the world is picking the A’s to win the AL pennant, so I’ll say the Yankees go back to the series.
You know the public is never right.
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If Bonds doesn’t play at least 100 games, the Giants will lose over 90 and threaten the Rockies’ hold on last place. I really don’t understand all the optimism concerning the Giants. Most of Sabean’s alleged upgrades in the off-season weren’t upgrades at all. The Giants downgraded in some places and stood their ground with very old players whose performance should decline with another year on the wrong side of 30 (40 in some cases).
If the Angels choose talent over fame (promote some of their outstanding minor leaguers and dump some of their fading veterans), their win total will be closer to 90 than 80. I’m not confident Scioscia will have the nerve to do it this year. If the Angels fall flat in 2006, the heroes of 2002 will be jettisoned and their great minor league system will begin to make Billy Beane’s life difficult for several years beginning in 2007.
I know it’s foolish to bet against the Braves but this year I think they’ll have to be content with the N.L. wildcard.
My prediction for the Twins assumes they will replace Batista and Castro with real major leaguers by the end of June, plus I expect a huge breakout for Joe Mauer. The A.L. Central is really a crapshoot that could be won by any of the top three teams. Whichever team finishes second will be the wildcard.
I know that Cubs record looks insane but I’m guessing Prior won’t be on the shelf for long and Wood will come back as a reliever. Also, Dusty’s teams always seem to win about five more games than anyone thinks they should. Why am I so down on the Brewers? I’m not. But teams that improve substantially one year tend to lose ground the next. I expect the Brewers to be contenders for a few years beginning in 2007. I love that the Brewers’ upswing coincides with the purge of the Selig clan.
AL West W L
Oakland 101 61
Texas 81 81
Anaheim 80 82
Seattle 74 88
AL Central W L
Minnesota 90 72
Cleveland 88 74
Chicago 87 75
Detroit 79 83
Kansas City 61 101
New York 93 69
Toronto 85 77
Boston 84 78
Baltimore 73 89
Tampa Bay 71 91
NL West W L
Los Angeles 87 75
Arizona 83 79
San Diego 80 82
San Francisco 74 88
Colorado 68 94
NL Central W L
St. Louis 90 72
Chicago 85 77
Milwaukee 79 83
Houston 80 82
Cincinnati 78 84
Pittsburgh 77 85
NL East W L
New York 87 75
Atlanta 86 76
Philadelphia 85 77
Washington 75 87
Florida 69 93
_____________________
Mark Murphy
Castro Valley
Even before opening night for the ’06 A’s I’d said that I really won’t miss Barry Zito next year when he’s gone.
I’d be willing to bet that the A’s front office won’t either.
Of coarse they’ll miss Barry Zito, the good guy. But they won’t miss Barry Zito the pitcher. People with more than “fan-typical” baseball knowledge know that Zito, the pitcher, is overrated.
He’s a charismatic, eccentric baseball player. Combine that with a Cy Young award (100 years ago)…and you’re going to see some serious “overration”.
The fact is, in professional sports, one recipe for superstardom is awesome production. However, there’s another way to become a “star”…eccentricity and a little bit of success.
And that’s specifically why Zito will get $14 mil per year after this season from some over zelous owner. Not because he’s worth that, but because a lot of MLB general managers/owners have “fan-typical” knowledge as well. And thats a sad, sad thing.
If you look at Zito’s stats since his Cy Young year he’s been simply…average. Yet he still has all that respect. Boggles my mind why people can’t get past the name on the baseball card and just turn it over and look at the stats on the back.
And thats why I won’t miss Barry Zito next year when he’s pitching for a different team.
Simply put, he’s not that good.
I’ve heard rumors that the Rangers are already intersted (what pitcher aren’t they interested in). To be honest…fine with me.
Having Zito pitch against the A’s in their division doesn’t worry me at all.
–Ned
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