Marty Lurie Talks San Francisco Giants Baseball
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Who Knows What Will Happen Today?


The A’s have a rotation of two excellent starters, Zito and Harden, one possible third starter who may win 10-14 games, if all goes well, Dan Haren, and two completely unproven rookies who will need two years in the majors if they don’t get crushed in their first year, to mature into major league pitchers.

Now the good news. Baseball today requires a strong bull pen. You build a pitching staff from the back forward. Juan Cruz and Kiko Calero have an upside which might be better than Jim Mecir and Chad Bradford. Huston Street might make it, Jairo Garcia might be close behind too. Rincon can still get lefties out and Dotel might save 35 games if used correctly.

“Might” is the key word.

Hatteberg and Durazo are at first, Ginter and Scutaro at second, Crosby at short, Chavez at third. Right now Byrnes, Thomas, Kielty in left, Kotsay in center, and Swisher in right, Kendall catching.

What does it add up to?

85 wins if all goes well. Road trips will be a nightmare with young pitching in the rotation. Much too much pressure on the offense to carry this team.

Will it get better in 2006, I’ll tell you after I see about 100 games this year.

The A’s broke up a very good pitching staff by trading stars, the players they received in return could have been obtained by trading young players they have in their own minor league system.

These trades were made for money reasons pure and simple.

There was no reason to trade Mulder this year unless you really felt his second half meltdown was going to continue.

He may have had a nice year, anchoring the staff, then you could have made this trade next December just like the one this week for Hudson.

The team won’t suck, but it won’t be a favorite to win the division, in fact it will probably be picked to finish third or fourth.

Keep in mind the pitching in Anaheim, Seattle and Texas is not lights out. The offenses are, but pitching wins, so the AL West won’t be a runaway for any team.

Billy Beane’s legacy as a GM is now tied to six new players plus Jason Kendall, I wonder how he feels about that?

He fell into Hudson, Mulder, and Zito along with Tejada and Giambi. He creatively added Foulke, Damon, Isringhausen, Kotsay, Mecir, and numerous others, but didn’t win.

He blew up the A’s pitching this winter and will start a new.

His own drafts of Swisher, Blanton, and Street will now be judged on their merits.

Click below for more!There was no reason to trade Mulder this year unless you really felt his second half meltdown was going to continue.

He may have had a nice year, anchoring the staff, then you could have made this trade next December just like the one this week for Hudson.

What’s the big rush? Wouldn’t Dan Haren and Kiko Calero or someone comparable always be there for Mulder? Next year there will be another Darric Barton on someone’s roster waiting to be moved?

What happened to all the vaunted “MoneyBall” draft picks? Why couldn’t they be moved for the Cards players this year?

The A’s team won’t suck, but it won’t be a favorite to win the division, in fact it will probably be picked third or fourth.

Keep in mind the pitching in Anaheim, Seattle and Texas is not lights out. The offenses are, but pitching wins, so the AL West won’t be a runaway for any team.

If Mulder stayed and the rest of the team exceeded expectations, then the A’s were in the thick of the race.

Now they have to get extremely lucky because unproven starters take time to get it together in the majors.

I have a hard time believing that the Mulder trade will be the last move of the winter.

The Yankees will have Randy Johnson within the next day or two. Will he be the Curt Schilling of 2005?

Not by a long shot. He will be 41 or is it 42, you know what can happen to players that age.

Jaret Wright is an enigma. Good start, bad start, always a question mark.

Carl Pavano, a .500 pitcher who faded down the stretch for the Marlins.

Mike Stanton and Felix Rodriguez in the pen. Did you see how these two pitched last year? Neither could put hitters away.

Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill couldn’t lift their arms by the end of the year.

Mike Mussina, steady but at the end of his fine career.

Kevin Brown will go somewhere. Not Philly or Atlanta but maybe Texas if Yanks can’t find a buyer?

Mariano Rivera, still a pleasure coming out of the pen.

Yankee offense is top notch even with the overrated A Rod hitting second. Give them Beltran and it will look much better.

Bernie Williams has had it and Sheffield is always in danger of breaking down.

Yanks will be the favorite, as they should be when you spend 200 million, but believe me they are rolling the dice on some big parts of the puzzle.

I think the Yanks need Delgado or Beltran to make their lineup a lock in the East.

Red Sox might not have Schilling until May and then who knows what he will bring to the mound after a long rehab?

Matt Clement throws hard but never could throw consistently for more than three starts in a row.

Bronson Arroyo and Tim Wakefield are average at best. David Wells tends to have trouble in the big city and now he’s back in the spotlight in Boston.

The Sox can rake, have a nice bull pen, and a new big time shortstop in Edgar Renteria.

Yanks and Sox will battle it out once again, same as every year.

Sammy Sosa will leave Chicago no doubt about it. The Mets are silly enough to put him in a bad hitter’s park (Shea) where defense is key. That’s how badly they want to get rid of Cliff Floyd.

Mike Piazza will go to the AL. He can’t catch anymore but the Mets insist that’s where he’ll be. If Baltimore whiffs on Delgado then I say Piazza ends up in Camden Yards as the DH.

Even with Mark Mulder the Cards can use either Derek Lowe or Kevin Millwood. If I was Texas and saw how the A’s might be taking 2005 off, I’d seriously consider Lowe and Millwood for the rotation.

Would the A’s consider Moises Alou for one year? Probably not because he would want to be paid in money.

Dodgers are the A’s south. If you have a team in LA how can you leave Adrian Beltre off the roster?

When the fallout ends in LA tomorrow you have Jon Garland, Paul Konerko, and Damaso Marte for about ten players going back to the Lo Duca trade of last year.

I love what Arizona is doing. Glaus can slug with the best, Russ Ortiz and Brandon Webb can pitch, Brad Penny if healthy can play.

Arizona can go from 111 losses to back in the race if things go well.

So back to the A’s. They will pick up more starting pitching from the non tender list this week. How about Wade Miller from Houston? He might be let go by the Astros. If his arm is sound, I’d take a chance on him for one year.

Hudson and Mulder gone for:

Kiko Calero
Juan Cruz
Dan Meyer
Darric Barton
Charles Thomas
Dan Haren

I sure hope the computer knows what it is doing this time because batting average against, on base percentage, K/BB ratios can’t play the games. The players do and will on the field and these new guys have a lot of potential which means one thing:

“They ain’t done nothing yet”.

Stay tuned 2005 will be some season to follow.

0 comments

1 Anonymous { 12.19.04 at 11:36 am }

Marty, your predictions for 85 wins may be overstated. Let’s see what happens at then end of the year. In my opinion, they will be lucky to reach
.500.

Jerry F

2 Anonymous { 12.19.04 at 12:33 pm }

Marty,
I love your jabs at Beane’s dogmatism towards stats. Everyone knows that the starting pitching made the A’s contenders the last few years. I think it’s just like you imply. Beane wants to start fresh and with players he is responsible for drafting and/or coveting. Course, the budget problem is the main factor. I think Schott is refusing to go over the 60 million mark (it’s the public blackmail thing I’ve mentioned before). Beane is using this opportunity to (re)define himself in the league. Well, Mr. Beane, you are off to a bad start. The fan base is in revolt and you still don’t have a team that can hit. And you should look at yourself in the mirror when blaming the A’s for not advancing in the playoffs. A’s should have bunted or hit and run a few times.
-Mike E.

3 Anonymous { 12.19.04 at 3:51 pm }

All the outraged people who are predicting the demise of the A’s as a result of the Mulder deal are likely to be proven wrong. This may be one of the most productive trades Beane has made. The last time Mulder won a game was on Aug. 24th. He was 0-4 with a 7.27 ERA in his last seven starts. Branch Rickey knew when to get rid of his players on a down slope and Beane may be doing the same.

Ed Stern

4 Anonymous { 12.20.04 at 2:57 pm }

This is still December, the division isn’t won in December, Jerry. The Angels still need a lead off hitter and a shortstop since they don’t want Eckstein. This so-called “World Series contending” couldn’t win at home a game during ALDS. Texas always needs pitching. While Seattle might be the surprise out of the West. The A’s and rest of the MLB team off-season is still not over yet.

-Pachyderm (Edgar Martinez)

5 Anonymous { 09.22.07 at 1:15 pm }

6 Anonymous { 09.22.07 at 1:51 pm }

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