Monday Morning Muse
Seen enough of the five game playoff series?
Not so fast, one more game tonight between the A’s and the Red Sox.
The Marlins, Cubs, and Yankees are in, who will follow?
The A’s play differently at home (59-24), they better continue to do that because they have not looked like a championship team the last two days.
Strange series, not much hitting on either side. Eric Chavez is not getting many good swings even though it is different than in other postseasons when he was swinging wildly, neither Chavez nor Miguel Tejada are swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. The ball just isn’t falling for them right now.
Boston’s achilles heel had been its bullpen. Not anymore, in the last two games Mike Timlin and Scott Williamson have emerged and are throwing fastballs past the A’s. To me, that is the biggest change for the Red Sox, no longer can you count on catching them in the late innings as these two look to be on top of their game.
Power pitching in October, just ask the Braves about trying to handle a big league fastball this time of year.
Barry Zito versus Pedro Martinez. How is this game different from game one?
Click below for more!In game one the A’s had the big crowd (50,000), a night game in Oakland and a healthy Tim Hudson on the hill.
Monday night they come in after losing two in Boston in the most excruciating fashion, late losses in games that seemed to be under their control.
Expect around 40,000 tomorrow evening, at least according to best estimates from the A’s ticket offices.
Barry Zito has never pitched on three days rest in his professional career. Last season the A’s bypassed Zito early in the Twins series because the thinking was he wouldn’t respond well with short rest because of the strain on his arm from relying on breaking balls. Thursday Zito threw perfect curves from the fourth inning on enroute to a dominating performance over the Bostons (111 pitches).
What will he have on Monday? I expect Zito to come out and try to establish his breaking ball early in the game. He is one tough person even though his public demeanor may be more of a soft guitar strumming young man. His concentration level can vary from start to start, but his season record is deceiving, he has pitched extremely well in October. I would expect five good innings from Zito before the bullpen will be summoned.
Who comes in? Most likely, either Rich Harden, Chad Harville, Jim Mecir, and John Halama early (check my advice below). If the A’s have a late lead, I expect Chad Bradford and Ricardo Rincon will get the ball and Keith Foulke will be asked to get four hitters instead of the six he tried to get today.
Both Foulke and Rincon threw balls right down the middle when they got in trouble in Fenway, not a good idea, but more attributable to jitters than plan. In Oakland, there is more room for error with the bigger dimensions than in Boston. I especially expect Foulke to rebound favorably.
Now to Pedro. Heart as big as anyone in the game when it comes to taking the ball. Game plan, same as before and it does work against him when he faces the A’s. Get his pitch count up, get the big hit and score three runs and hold on.
The difference here, Pedro comes in after a 130 pitch effort on Wednesday night. I expect him to be tough as nails, but more vulnerable because of his last start. Even at his best, the A’s have gotten to him for a few runs and they have had him on the ropes recently.
Now, the bullpen. The Red Sox have something going with the power arms. If they have to go to the pen early, the game swings into the A’s favor as this will bring Scott Sauerbeck and others (unproven in this series) in before Timlin and Williamson.
The Red Sox haven’t hit at home or on the road in this series, so I don’t expect much hitting Monday night, the A’s have pitched them pretty well. The Sox have the big time hitters, but they are being pitched extremely well 98% of the time.
The A’s have to rediscover the magic at home. Let’s face it, they are 59-24 at home and that cannot be ignored no matter how much the baseball world would like to see Boston in the ALCS. Oakland, like Boston, is a different team at home.
The A’s need Erubiel Durazo to get on base, Scott Hattberg to work his walks, Chris Singleton will be back tomorrw no doubt (he hits Pedro), but most of all they need someone to knock one out. They only hit .256 for the season, but have gotten by because the one hit they got in four times up, was the one they needed. Monday they need a homer at the right time.
The same old recipe applies for both teams: Play good baseball, remember you have to touch the plate to score, catch the ball, run the bases properly (can’t make the first out at third base, no matter what), trust your stuff on the mound, don’t give in, and get some timely hits (like Jermaine Dye and David Ortiz did Sunday).
Neither starter will pitch a complete game, who will go deeper into the game, whose bullpen will be ready for middle relief?
My advice to both managers, go to the big guys in the pen early, don’t wait even if it is the fourth inning, (see Joe Torre and Mike Stanton in 2000 game five, he saved NY when the A’s closed the gap).
The game will start in twilight (5:00PM Pacific), fly balls will be an adventure (T Long 2000), strike outs will be plentiful early in the game.
What happened with Tim Hudson? No clear expanation yet. Was it the curse of a three day starter trying to do too much? The recent numbers are undeniable, pitchers in this era going on three days rest have difficulty winning, let alone looking like their usual selves. Barry Zito pitches Monday night with those facts in mind.
So who will win? This one will be decided by hitting not pitching because all the pitchers are tired and with all due repect to Pedro his reputation is greater than his stuff these days. No Kerry Wood here on Monday night, this one will be another tight baseball game with more runs than you think.
Yanks got past Minnesota as expected. Twins weren’t going to outhit New York. Now Yankees get to sit back and wait to see who their opponents will be Wednesday. Both the Sox and the A’s are in trouble as the rotations are being stretched to the limit in this series.
Sox will open with? Tim Wakefield? Jeff Suppan?
A’s: Rich Harden or Steve Sparks, then Ted Lilly? Who knows the status of Hudson? Or Zito after tomorrow?
Cubs proved that they have the horses to win on the hill. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are October pitchers, no doubt. Dusty Baker has it going with these two. These guys only need three runs and they seem to get the job done without any bumps along the way.
Playing in a five game divisional series really is different from the regular season. You have to manage like it is the seventh game of the world series every game, you have to play the game like a champion, you cannot let the other team back in the series when you have them down. Most important of all, you need big time pitchers to step up whether it is in the bullpen or from the starters, some folks have to be there when it counts. Just ask the Giants who didn’t play championship baseball (errors, missing clutch hits, poor relief pitching, and poor starting pitching), they can say the Marlins are a better team, but the truth is SF didn’t play the way they had when they won 100 games during the season.
If you are an A’s fan, a Cubs fan, a Sox fan or a Marlins fan, can you stand going through a month of this (Yankee fans don’t count)?
Pretty exciting stuff!
Forget the regular season this is a different animal, this is sudden death baseball and you better be ready to do things differently, there is no tomorrow and we are only in the first round.
Zito and Pedro, Red Sox and the Curse of the Bambino, the A’s and their game five angst, what more can you ask for if you are a fan?
How about the League Championships coming up next for starters.
This will be some month. The best postseason in years, as I said last week.
0 comments
Great thoughts, Marty.
Lets hope the A’s bring their lumber to the yard tomorrow. I agree that Pedro’s stuff isn’t as nasty as it has been in the past. He is hittable. And, hopefully, his 130 pitch game on Wed. night affects him. Zito needs to keep the Sox in check for 5 innings. Even if his stuff isn’t that great, I think he can do it cause the Sox aren’t hitting the ball and they aren’t in Fenway. It probably will come down to bullpens in the 6th or 7th. A’s, of course, have the slight edge in that situation.
I really don’t know what to expect from Chavez and Tejada. Those two have looked completely lost at the plate. What ever happened just trying to hit up the middle and linedrives? Both Chavez and Tejada seem to have slow bats. They’re missing fastballs on the fat part of the plate. Maybe they are trying to swing too hard? Tejada is certainly pulling off the ball. The A’s need these two to produce tomorrow.
Why not use Bradford in the 8th today instead of Foulke? Foulke is a flyball pitcher and it’s asking too much of him to get 6 outs at Fenway! Nomar’s hit would have probably been an out at the Coliseum. Bradford would have been better cause he induces groundballs.
Man, the A’s will seriously need to be shaken up over the off season, if they lose tomorrow. I expect some surprises with players getting traded. I’d do it cause these guys can’t seem to perform well enough with each other.
-Mike
well said,marty. Mike’s comments are on the mark. If Zito has trouble with his curveball,he
could be toast. If Pedro is on his game,it could be a long night for the A’s. Great stuff.
just great.
Jerry F
Mike, Macha thought Foulke could close the deal ala Mariano Rivera, can’t fault him for that. Hitting the ball up the middle is a good suggestion for Tejada and Chavez, that is usually good advice when trying to break a slump. My advice to the A’s, don’t read the papers or watch television, just remember you are playing at home.
Marty
I have to say that the A’s are the most frustrating team in history. I hearbye announce the withdrawl of my lifelong fanship of the Oakland A’s. When they blow it in Game 5 tomorrow, I won’t be there to see it. I’ll save myself the inevitable, and always present A’s agony. I’m done rooting for a team with no brains who find every imaginable creative way to choke. Every year. If they made the playoffs for the next six years I’m confident they’d blow it every time. Reason: because they are too nervous and don’t have leaders with psychological guts on offense. Hudson, Zito, Lilly, and Mulder are always warriors. Tejada and Chavez are supposed to be the leaders, but psychologically they’re complete wimps in high pressure situations as seen time and time again in their post season hitting and mental mistakes. Eric Byrnes is not a ball player, he’s an athletic, brainless, nervous wreck running around like a chicken with his head cut off. Please trade him immediately or at least by next mid season before he can play in the playoffs ever again. Tejada can walk for all I care. He’ll always be a regular season stud and a post season wuss because he too doesn’t have the confidence and guts to relax and just play baseball. Same with Chavez. Sign Guillen. Get rid of Dye and his $11 mil. Get rid of T-Long (who cares how). Trade for a top of the line hitter who won’t choke in the postseason. Changes need to be made on offense in the way of mentality (i.e. Kevin Millar). Its a known fact that every year the A’s flat out beat themselves. And yes, its true, they also have the worst luck in history (umpires, Jeter, mis judged fly balls, Eric Byrnes, Eric Byrnes, Eric Byrnes) The A’s are now, and have been for the last 4 years, playing scared in the playoffs. That’ll never get it done. Never.
Marty, Tell me something to give me hope for game 5. I need a pick-me-up. Feel like we’ve been here before and seen how it played out. I’ll tell you this: my confidence in our boys has seen brighter days. Don’t you think we deserve a break for once. Its about time the A’s got some luck in the postseason for once. Keep T-Long so far away from the field tomorrow, play McMillon, hit him lead off(see “professional hitter”) and sign him next year, Mark Ellis should not lead off for goodness sakes, gotta play Guillen (see “gutsy stud”), and lets pray for some unreal Zito and some big hits.
After reading the papers this morning I realized not one person pointed out the fact that this A’s team plays a completely different game at home. All the writers dwelled on the fact that the A’s can be the biggest losers of all time. The Red Sox haven’t hit with any authority against the A’s in any game in the Coliseum. Anything can happen in a baseball game, you make your own breaks, if the A’s play smart baseball as they have done at home all season, they can stay with Pedro and make it a late inning game once again. How about the stories this morning about Tim Hudson and the bar altercation the night before he was pitching the biggest game of the season. What was that all about. What time did that happen? Not one word about it in the Oakland Tribune, I read it in the SF Chronicle. I never thought Bob Gibson would lose a game seven, but he did in 1968 to the Tigers in the World Series, so anything can happen, let’s enjoy the moment, we’ve had a different compelling story since March (remember the scheduled trip to Japan?).
Marty
MArty,
I like your comments that the team needs to remember they are in Oakland and how well they play there. And the team needs to calm down. Tejeda is trying to prove his worth for his free-agency just like he did early in the year. Hopefully, he realizes that he has muffed that one so just go out and play. We need the Rally Miggy. The whole team needs to play their game and not worry about the Sox and Pedro. This is one tough scenario though as they try for the 9th time to win a deciding game while the entire world wants the Sox to advance. I know I will not be able to listen to the announcers on ESPN or Fox tonight.
The Hudson story is strange and out of character for him. But then again, maybe those Sox fans just went too far. After the LILLY signs on Saturday night from the team, they are capable of anything and everything. (Just an aside, but the one bright light on Saturday was Lilly. He was truly amazing. I hope that all his doubters are gone now. And, Billy needs to sign him to a long deal).
So, why was Varitek allowed to block the plate without the ball anywhere near him and trip Byrnes? And then tag him out with glove while the ball was in his other hand? While I can’t forgive the A’s for their misplays on Saturday, it would be nice to have a least one call go our way. Guess the umps want Boston to win, too.
I think the umpiring has been awful in the entire postseason, I’ve never seen so many blown calls with six umpires on the field. How about missing Lofton’s catch last night? Didn’t the leftfield umpire have a clear unobstructed view? Tim McCarver then beat the discussion into the ground for three innings when the play turned out to be a non factor in the game. What a boor he is. Missing the calls Saturday night was unbelievable, especially at the plate with Byrnes and Varitek.
Pedro is not Koufax, no matter what the media says, and for that matter neither is Zito, so this one is up for grabs, and I’ll say it again one well placed long ball by either team will be the difference, there will be runners on tonight.
Marty
Maybe I’m off base here, but the real long term issue here is the future of the A’s in Oakland. As bad as the recent history of post season losses are; they’d be much easier to absorb if the A’s had a solid fan base to lean on like the Cubs and Giants(to name a couple). Not to knock the A’s fans…they’re great, there are just not a lot of them in comparison to other teams. As a result of this, the A’s attendance is reliant mostly upon the “fair-weather” fans who do not buy season tickets.
We all know that Bud Selig would love to see this team gone(or at least moved) And one factor that no one mentions that makes the A’s a strong candidate for contraction(or relocation) is that by getting rid of the A’s, you DO NOT deprive a major market of Major League Baseball(as the Bay Area would still have the Giants). You can’t make that argument anywhere else, even in Montreal. That, fellow A’s fans; scares the heck out of me more than anything else.
Like a lot of people, I’d like to see new ownership here, but even if one came around, would it meet the same obstacles that the Dolich/Puccini group did a few years ago when they tried to buy the A’s? Knowing that, I think the A’s best shot at survival is for Schott and Beane to continue doing what they’re doing(and spend some more $$ too)
But what happens to next years’ attendance/revenue stream if the A’s stumble again in the Division Series, Tejada leaves, and worse yet; Beane decides Seattle may not be a bad place after all? (If he really wants to leave, we know that nothing can really stop him, contract or otherwise)
As terrible as this sounds, the best thing to happen to the A’s may have been the Giants failure to advance. (I keep waiting for the day that KNBR stops even giving A’s scores on the air).
That said, for the A’s to win today would be a HUGE boost for the fortunes of this club. But long term…there’s work to be done, and with a lease up in 2007, not much time to do it.
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