I always wondered as I grew up why the veteran baseball writers made such a big deal of who was leading the race on July the 4th.

They had all sorts of statistics demonstarting that the leaders on the holiday would be meeting in the world series that fall.

More often than not, they were wrong and some Cinderella team arose from the doldrums and charged to the pennant, erasing an 8 or 9 game deficit along the way.

There is some validity to looking at the teams that are in the hunt on July 4th because we have just passed the literal half way point of the season and you can get a pretty fair idea of why a team is either struggling or playing well.

Of, course all this can change quickly. My good friend Leonard Koppett always told me that as long as a team’s record was .500 on August first, they were in the race. He amended that date to September first because of the wild card, which allowed teams at the break even point heading into the last month to be within striking distance of the newly created way into the playoffs.

With that in mind let’s look at the leaders on the 4th and see who may catch them.

The Mariners have a well balanced team. Judging from their four game series this week in Oakland, they are not a tremendous hitting team in a league which requires offense on a daily basis.

They do play the game with great defense, tight, yet unspectacular pitching, and a leaky bullpen that may have a gem in Rafael Soriano if they give him a chance.

Seattle’s schedule mirrors Oakland’s in the second half. Can Oakland play six games better than Seattle and catch the Mariners over the next 79 games?

Both teams will play the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays as well as the White Sox, Royals, and Twins, then it is back to the division. Whoever plays better outside the West will either put it away (Seattle) or make it very close in September (Oakland).

As in the past few seasons, the A’s will need help from team’s within the division to beat Seattle if they are close by September 8th.

Anaheim hasn’t been able to beat the Mariners, but I think that will change in September. Seattle is vulnerable on offense, they are one injury away from trouble. Not having John Olerud in the lineup left a void this week in Oakland.

Seattle plays the game correctly, but this isn’t the 116 win team of two years ago. They must remain healthy to win the West.

The A’s are a team with needs. By now (July 4th) we understand that Eric Chavez, Jermaine Dye, and Miguel Tejada are having subpar seasons. Erubiel Durazo is a walking machine, but not the power hitter everyone expected. The A’s play many tight games because their offense just doesn’t click regularly. Eric Byrnes who wasn’t on the radar screen when the season opened has been their best offensive player, that tells you all you have to know about the A’s offense. Oakland is in the hope stage of the season, they have to hope the big three and Durazo come alive, hope is nice but on July 4th if you rely on hope you may be cutting it a little close.

Oakland’s pitching should keep them close to the playoff race. Ted Lilly is in the hope category as well. Aaron Harang is in their with him too. So is Chad Bradford and Jim Mecir. The A’s hope they will either rebound and pitch well in the second half or keep up the pace set in the first half.

A’s fans know that the team needs two pitchers. A reliable fourth starter and a strong arm in the bullpen, without those two additions, it will be tough to match Seattle’s pitching staff.

The Angels are grinding everyday. Some days are better than others, but they have potential on offense. Scott Shields should pitch in the rotation, he can give them six strong innings, something they don’t always get from Kevin Appier and Aaron Sele.

It is tough to repeat and the Angels are experiencing the agony of having to come from behind again. By this time last year they already looked like a playoff team, this year they don’t.

Boston can hit, we now know their bullpen is the problem. Byung Hyun Kim can help them get it straight in the ninth inning, but they still need reliable set up men.

If Boston continues to struggle hitting on the road in the second half they will never catch the Yankees. The bullpen meltdowns and the poor road offense have pushed the Sox four games back of NY as of this morning.

Boston needs another power arm in the eighth inning and must pray Pedro stays healthy for the second half. I put Boston’s pitching in the hope category, too. But man oh man that offense in Fenway is something else.

The Yankees will rebuild their bullpen no doubt over the next month, you can count on it. They will hope Derek Jeter starts hitting, Bernie Williams comes back strong and that their starting pitching stays healthy. This is why they are concentrating their efforts on two more set up men to carry this staff over the next three months.

This is not a vintage Yankee team, we know this after watching them play 83 games, but they are much better than the four fifths of the league and they, like Seattle (30-13), win on the road ( NY 29-14).

It’s July 4th and the Twins have crumbled like the apple pie you will eat tonight. Hard to understand but after half the season, you have to wonder where Minneota’s offense went and all of its pitching, starters and relievers combined.

Will they rebound? Who knows, but it hasn’t been pretty watching this collapse.

Chicago is on the upswing. Kansas City believes it can win too. This could be a three team race. The winner may be decided by who plays the best outside the division as well. In that case, I think the White Sox pitching gives them the advantage, but you knew I would say that because I’ve been saying that since April 1st.

The criticism of Chicago is that they are too one dimensional on offense (righthanded). They added two lefthanded bats with Carl Everett and Robby Alomar. After watching Billy Koch in the first half I would put him in middle relief.

Even though the Royals are a wonderful story, I just don’t see the depth on offense or on the mound for them to win, but hey, we are talking about them on July 4th, and that is amazing in itself.

So there you have it.

The AL leaders on July 4th.

Seattle

Kansas City

New York

Boston (Wild Card)

We know alot about the race right now, but you know what, with that in mind, I wouldn’t bet on it ending up this way.

In the NL the strength will lie with the veteran teams. The Giants know how to play, that counts. The Dodgers will fade further back because they are a flawed team. The Diamondbacks young players better be similar to Jim Rice and Fred Lynn, rookies on the 75 Red Sox, or else they will sink quickly. If vets Johnson, Schilling, Counsell and Hillenbrand come back and Gonzalez and Finley continue to play well, they can pressure the Giants, but without those things happening I think the Giants are the best in the West.

The Phillies are putting it together finally. They have a big upside. The Braves play the game hard, it’s never easy to beat them, but they aren’t whipping up on their divsion rivals anymore, head to head. With the Marlins pitching and offense, this race is far from over. This we have learned after 83 games.

I just can’t get behind the Expos, I feel MLB will do something to make sure they don’t get in. Can you see 14,000 at a playoff game in October in Montreal, they won’t let it happen.

The Cubs need offense and their bullpen is disappearing daily. The Cards need pitching desperately, the Astros need Jeff Kent back soon.

The first half has told us that Houston will be tough to beat if healthy and that St. Louis has the best offense in the Midwest.

Who will win? This one is too tough to call, ask Dan Rather he can project winners better than I.

The leaders:

Atlanta

Houston and St.Louis

Giants

Phillies (wild card)

I think you are looking at the October lineup unless we have some baseball miracles in the next few months.

So, July 4th gives a pretty good read on where you stand after 80 games or so, and what you need to do over the next 80, I guess that is why the veteran baseball writers liked this holiday so much.

That and hot dogs, apple pie, doubleheaders, and fireworks.

That’s baseball.