Marty Lurie Talks San Francisco Giants Baseball
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What's in a prospect?

Bobby Crosby is the heir apparent to Miguel Tejada. Everyone and their fungo bats know that, but the question is how secure is his job? According to Billy Beane at the question and answer session at Fan Fest, Crosby has all the time he needs to adjust to the big leagues. Beane said that Crosby may suffer the occasional slump, but the shortstop will be given the time and at-bats to fight through it. Expectations are certainly high after Tejada’s constant production of 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s every year, but rookie phenoms (position players, anyway) haven’t faired too well in Oakland in recent history.

Click below for an excellent discussion of “what is a prospect” from one of our fans.
Thanks, Marty
Go back to 2001, when young second baseman Jose Ortiz was ready to take the job from Randy Velarde, who had been traded to the Texas Rangers after the 2000 season. Ortiz was looking very promising in 2000, after batting .351 at Sacramento, with 24 home runs, 108 RBI’s, and 22 stolen bases to earn the PCL MVP (numbers very close to Crosby’s, ironically). Ortiz got off to a quick start, with six hits in seventeen at-bats for the A‘s in April 2001, but the rest was downhill from there. A few hitless games cast doubt around Ortiz, but he was promptly sidelined after a calf injury that kept him out until mid-May. Ortiz, who never had the chance to regain his starting position (Frank Menechino was batting .272 with a .382 OBP by the time Ortiz had returned), was sent down to Sacramento. The A’s had called up Mark Bellhorn from Sacramento, and thus had enough depth at second base. Ortiz never fully regained his PCL MVP form and batted .273 in 67 games for the River Cats in 2001. On July 25th, Jose was packaged with farmhand pitcher Todd Belitz and outfielder Mario Encarnacion in the three-team trade that landed the A’s Jermaine Dye (and Ortiz and company in Colorado). For the Rockies, Ortiz batted .255 in 246 at-bats. In 2002, Ortiz batted .250 for Colorado in 192 at-bats. The Orix BlueWave, of the Japanese Leagues, acquired Ortiz from the Rockies after the season, and he batted .255 again in 470 at-bats with decent power. Ortiz was let go by Oakland because he was expendable with the depth at second base. It didn’t help that scouts were saying he couldn’t hit a breaking ball and had trouble matching a big-league fastball. The bottom line was that pitchers just knew how to get him out.

Moving to 2002, the new protégé to Jason Giambi was to be newly acquired Carlos Pena. Carlos was primed to be the successor to Jason Giambi, and seemed to have a lot more upside as well. Pena, a power-hitting left-handed hitter, was also an incredible fielder. Billy Beane had dubbed Pena the “best first-base prospect in the league.” At Texas’ triple-A affiliate in 2001, Pena batted .288, 22 home runs, 74 RBI’s, and had a .408 OBP, even while missing the first two months of the season due to a hamstring problem. He also made an impression in his September call-up, collecting 3 home runs and 12 RBI’s in 62 at-bats for Texas. Acquired in a six-player trade that sent Mario Ramos, Jason Hart, Ryan Ludwick, and Gerald Laird to the Rangers, the A’s also received Mike Venafro in addition to Pena. Pena started the season well, batting .264 with 7 home runs and 16 RBI’s just during April. That was good enough to earn him AL rookie of the month honors. However, that changed very quickly. Following Ortiz’ trend of good to bad, Pena was 4-37 in the month of May, and was sent down to Sacramento in the large roster shakeup with Frank Menechino and Jeff Tam. Larry Sutton, Adam Piatt, and Esteban German were selected from the River Cats. In an unrelated note, the three players that were called up never made too much of an impact. Mark Ellis, the now-incumbent second baseman, had his chance after Esteban German was unable to impress. Much like Ortiz, Pena never really regained his form in Sacramento. After batting .240 with minimal power for the River Cats, he was sent to Detroit in a three-team seven-player deal that landed the A’s Ted Lilly. Carlos’ downfall was his inability to hit the ball to the opposite field, not to mention the obvious inconsistency he had begun to develop (and still has in Detroit).

Now here we are in 2004, and Oakland’s answer for Miguel Tejada is Bobby Crosby. When Beane said that Crosby has as much time to adjust as he needs, just how safe is he? Keep in mind that when Ortiz and Pena were ready to step in, they had had similar years to the type that Crosby came out with in Sacramento last year, but were way out of the loop by May (Crosby batted .308 in 465 at-bats, hitting 22 home runs and 90 RBI’s, while having a 395 OBP). There are several things that may come into play next year. First of all, Crosby isn’t only replacing an above-average shortstop, he’s replacing a guy who has played in over 500 consecutive games. Tejada wasn’t only an incredible hitter at a physically demanding position, he came to the ballpark every day with various injuries ready to play anyway. Crosby, while a young and energetic player, probably won’t be able to play as much as Tejada. What happens if Crosby is hitting around .200 well into May or early June? One of a few things could happen: Frank Menechino would slip to shortstop, and possibly slide into the lower part of the batting order. Another thing that could happen is that Mark Ellis could slide over to his natural position at shortstop, and Frank Menechino could move to second, or maybe an A’s farmhand could be trying their luck (Esteban German again?). Those situations seem unlikely, as Menechino is past his prime, which unfortunately seems to be the 2001 season, when he batted .242 (but with a .369 OBP). Also, according to Beane, Ellis’ defense ranks as the best in the major leagues. He may be too valuable to move over to shortstop. If the A’s acquire a second baseman or a shortstop early in the season (i.e. Jose Vidro, a free agent at the end of the season) due to poor performance, it may be a distinct possibility that Crosby could be on his way out. A lot of doubt has been cast around Crosby, as he is prone to striking out quite a bit. Though his high number of walks (63) somewhat make up for his 110 K’s, it still presents a problem. Until the season starts, Bobby Crosby has a lot of time to prove that he deserves to be the starting shortstop for 2004. But Ken Macha’s philosophy is that the players write the lineup, so who’s to say that the rookie Crosby is an exception?

147 comments

1 Dave { 02.11.04 at 12:48 pm }

Thanks for posting my article. It’s an honor to have it up on your website.
Anyway, I was just wondering what your opinion is on the faith in Crosby. He doesn’t have to hit .300 or even .250, but just how safe is he?

2 marty { 02.11.04 at 3:41 pm }

Dave, You have a good feel for the game and I enjoy your comments. Crosby is an intense player who probably will press to begin the season. I’ll have a better read on his defense during spring training. If anyone can get him ready to play big league shortstop, Ron Washington can. Offensively, I’ve never seen him get a hit in the big leagues, so based on that I’d predict .255 with some power.
Marty

3 Anonymous { 02.11.04 at 5:41 pm }

this piece is a terrific . the writer must be either a devoted fan or a sports writer for a bay area newspaper. just great.

Jerry F

4 Anonymous { 02.12.04 at 1:06 pm }

Marty,

Thanks for the reassuring words that Wash can help, as he’s done with the infield for these past several years. I had heard it portrayed on certain local sports-talk interviews that Chris Spier was going to be working with Crosby at short, and that left me wondering where that left Wash, who as we know has turned out a few gold-glovers recently. My understanding leads me to believe that Crosby should be fine, as long as he can relax at the plate and stay within himself ,and he does come from a major league pedigree. Boy, do the A’s have a lot of 2,7 and 8 hitters…
Jerome

5 marty { 02.14.04 at 11:56 am }

Just a thought: It is a well known fact that Billy Beane would like to own a team someday or at least be the president of an organization, so if Paul DePodesta gets the Dodger’s GM job and Billy stays for this season, then what happens if a presidency (like LA) opens up? Does BB then take that job, who could deny permission for that upgrade? So maybe it would be better if the A’s let BB take the LA GM job and then have Paul remain to run Oakland. Hate to see both go, again I’m just looking ahead who knows where all this will go since LA is finally interviewing Pat Gillick for the GM position, and he is the antithesis of BB and DePodesta.
So you tell me will Greg Maddux be pitching in SBC next year as a Giant?
Marty

6 Anonymous { 02.14.04 at 12:34 pm }

The A’s play the Yankees in Oakland ONLY ONCE in ’04, in May, and midweek. They play the Red Sox ONCE, in September, and again midweek. And this year, they get the NL Central draws like Pittsburgh and Cincinnatti…YUK!

Add to that the real possibility that the A’s will again have a slow start(considering all the new personnel) and the attendance situation looks like a problem. One positive difference over last year is that there’s no new war in Iraq to distract attendance in April. However, Bush IS down in the polls and…..well, let’s not go there!

Comments?

Rob

7 jetersmomiswhite { 02.14.04 at 10:11 pm }

Hmm. . .have you noticed the Wednesday night games against the Yankees and Red Sox are not “double play” wednedays (they’re still calling it that, right?), and the tickest are full price for upper reserved (“view level”) – $8, not the usual $2 wednesday tix. When did the a’s start charging different prices for different opponents? I don’t recall an official announcement of this policy, as I’ve read from other clubs (mets). Not to mention the increased ticket prices this year. . . Nevertheless, I don’t think the a’s will have “attendance problems” in ’04, we’ll just continue to have average/mediocre attendance (in the 25k range), which is fine by me. Personally, my favorites are day games on Thursdays, which usually means about 6500 “paid attendance,” and that the SS can hear me all the way from the CF bleachers

8 marty { 02.15.04 at 8:48 am }

The A’s did lobby to get better dates both with the Red Sox and Yankees and in interleague play but were denied. The core group of fans now numbers 25-30,000 and I think the A’s can expect at least two million even with the less attractive home schedule.

A Rod wanted out of Texas last August, it was just a matter of time. I felt after the world series and the Boston debacle (quibbling over 5 million) that Texas HAD to trade him before the 2004 season (Buck didn’t want him around). I’ll have more on this trade later. Suffice it to say if A Rod feels like playing, which he often didn’t in clutch situations while in Texas, the Yankees will simply crush the bad teams.

If Texas doesn’t get a starting pitcher out of this deal, I’d be disappointed. How about Soriano to LA for Odalis Perez and Frank Thomas if LA can pry Thomas from the White Sox, which they can by sending some young pitching to Chicago.

More later…
Marty

9 Anonymous { 02.15.04 at 2:05 pm }

Marty, I look forward on your thoughts on the Arod to Yankees deal. It looks like the deal is complete. The Red Sox will sure look like idiots for not making this thing happen. And we all know that their team chemistry will implode at the first sign of struggle in the season.
-Mike

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