Are the Giants For Real, Why Are They Off To a 12-1 Start?
I posed this question to one of the most knowledgeable baseball fans I know, Ed Stern. Ed has followed baseball for over 70 years and teaches me something about the game every time we talk. His answer, well thought out and analytical follows below.
Also check out Ed’s Memories of the Game in the Classic Audio section of the site. Just type in his name in the search box on the Classic Audio page and listen to fabulous stories of baseball from the 30’s to the present.
click read more and tell me what you think.The Giants are now 12 and 1. The Yankees are 10 and 2 but no one
questions whether they are for real. There must be a reason for that and
I will try to unlock it.
Background to keep in mind—the overachieving Giants of last year
came within eight outs of being the Champs. Over the winter they dumped
a significant portion of their overachieving club and added a third
baseman, a right fielder, a center fielder and a second baseman. They
traded their best starting pitcher for a first year left handed pitcher
who has yet to win more than 12 games. They lost a Hall of Fame player,
Kent, who, at one point in the season, was carrying the ball club,
along, of course, with Bonds.
When the spring training season started, if one was asked to
evaluate the chances for this year, one would start with the pitching
staff. The staff included two starters, Hernandez and Jensen, from last
years’s rotation. If one took a close look at their stats one would
quickly conclude that the two of them may have been the two worst
starting pitchers in the league. They each put more men on base, in an
equivalent nine innings, than any other starting pitcher in the league.
The closer, Nen, had undergone surgery and no one knew the results—and
still don’t. Moss, who was received in the trade for Ortiz, was, and for
the most part, still is,unproven. There was small reason to look at this
staff and be optimistic. Before even contemplating the effect of all the
other major changes in the club, the pitching scene, by itself, would
have relegated the team to a position behind LA and Arizona. LA looked
as tho it may have repaired the damage to their pitching staff with a
healthy Brown and Dreifort, along with Nomo and a very good closer in
Gagne. Arizona still had Johnson and Schilling, altho some of us
questioned whether Johnson might be suspect because of his age. The
Giants looked like a distant third with an inadequate rotation.
After contemplating the pitching one had to take a look at the
position players lost and gained over the winter. The one most damaging
loss, undeniably, was Kent. How does one replace a second baseman
who,over a consistent 6 year period, has never failed to drive in over
100 runs each year? The Giants answer was to sign Alfonzo to a long term
contract for mucho bucks. They failed to take into consideration that
Alfonzo, in his two previous seasons with the Mets, had driven in fewer
runs, combined, than Kent had driven in in his one season. They signed
Grissom to play center field, apparently overlooking that LA thought so
little of his ability to hit right handed pitching that they platooned
him with Roberts. They added Cruz in right field, who is clearly an
improvement over Sanders. They did the best they could by signing Durham
to replace Kent. Durham is a different kind of player but an asset
nevertheless.
During spring training they made a big improvement by disposing of
Hernandez. To replace him they brought up Ainsworth.
Basically, this was the team that started the season. A pitching
staff without a closer and with a rookie, albeit one highly thought of,
in the rotation and a second year pitcher who had won 12 games last year
in place of the best starter on the team. An aging catcher, a first
baseman who hit .240 in each of his last two years, a center fielder who
can’t hit right handed pitching, a shortstop who probably had his career
year two years ago with limited range in the field,a third baseman who
played with a bad back the past two years and drives in 50 runs each
year,a second baseman who is yet to prove that he can field the
position, to such an extent that, in the American League last year he
was used as a DH.
The prospect for the new year was not encouraging.
Thirteen games into the new season the Giants are seven games ahead
of LA, having just swept a three game series. They are nine (count
them!) games ahead of Arizona.
Are they for real? Is it simply an aberration or is there a
rational explanation which bodes well for the remainder of the year?
The first place to look is at the pitching, where they looked
particularly vulnerable. Hernandez is gone. Jensen is on his way out.
Ainsworth is in the rotation and in his outings this far there is some
evidence that he may, in fact, be a major league pitcher of merit.
Apparently, Foppert is going to take up the other spot. He is a largely
unknown factor at this time. He pitched two very impressive innings last
night, but one might want something more than two innings on which to
make an evaluation of the kid’s future. However, he pitched well in the
spring and comes with glowing reports from everyone who has seen him. In
one of the spring games, at a time when it was clear the Giants were
going to send him down to Fresno at the start of the season,the opposing
American League manager,tongue in cheek, asked whether he could borrow
him for a few years until the Giants decided they were ready to use
him. If the Giants intend to put him in the rotation, and it appears
that they do, carrying two rookies in the starting rotation may not
inspire much confidence. However, these two may be unusual enough so
that they can get away with it. The A’s tried something not very
dissimilar and were successful with it.
The other questionable pitcher in the rotation is Moss. He had a
good outing last night. He still throws too many pitches and has trouble
getting into the late innings and that is not helpful for the bullpen.
Schmidt is a good pitcher today and may become a very good pitcher
before the year is over. He,too, throws too many pitches and runs out of
steam too soon. Rueter has, over the years, become a better pitcher
than one might have expected. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him eat
up more innings than he was previously capable of. Parenthetically, the
thought of using Hernandez in the 7th game rather than Rueter continues
to provide material for nightmares. A fairly typical Baker mistake, the
kind Alou doesn’t make.
The bullpen, even with the uncertainty respecting Nen, looks
strong. Nathan is a very welcome addition. His ultimate role has yet to
be determined. Worrell may inspire more confidence in one than Nen, He
is not as overpowering but, on the other hand, he doesn’t blow sky high
on not infrequent occasions as Nen does.
The bottom line, as far as the pitching goes, will ultimately
depend on the ability of the two young pitchers to throw at a major
league winning level.
Arriving at a judgment respecting the position players is not an
easy task. Bonds, Cruz, Santiago and Snow are providing the hitting so
far. Snow’s history is not encouraging but this is the year he becomes
a free agent.He doesn’t need to hit ,340 but .275 with some power would
be a big help. Santiago seems to get better as he gets older. He has a
more than adequate backup in Torrealba. This is the Giant’s catcher for
the future. Great defensively and he can hit well enough for a catcher.
Cruz is an improvement in right field and may actually be the right
fielder the team has been looking for. Grissom can’t hit but the team
will carry him for his fielding.
Somehow, the sum of the parts seems less than the overall total.
It’s difficult to understand. It was difficult to understand how they
ended up last year as well as they did. I do think that Alou is a very
strong presence. The team has a winning feeling about it. Not a very
scientific approach. The series with LA left that feeling. Also, they
don’t appear tohave a hell of a lot to beat in the division. Arizona may
not provide much opposition. It will be interesting to see how the teams
fare when they first play each other. If Johnson is on the downgrade
forget about Arizona. LA is the competition but they may not hit as well
as the Giants. The Giant’s are a better defensive club. If the pitching
holds up, and I have a sneaking suspicion that it will, and be exciting
in addition, I would wager on the Giants getting into the playoffs.
And I haven’t mentioned Bonds in all this. It may very well be that
Bonds presence does more for the club than the simple numbers show. He
adds a dimension to the aura. It seems as tho the other teams are
constantly worrying about the inevitable appearance of Barry and how are
they going to deal with him when he shows up. And show up he does. It is
difficult to put this into the equation but it is there and it makes the
team a great deal more dangerous.
So, to answer the question. I believe the Giants are real and the
other teams are going to have a very tough time overcoming this twelve
and one start.
Ed
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