Marty Lurie Talks San Francisco Giants Baseball
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The Road to October

How many wins will it take for the A’s to make the playoffs?

My prediction? I’m guessing 98 wins to get into post-season.

Seattle gets to 98 by going 26-18 (.591) the rest of the way; they are currently 72-46 (.610) for the season. After facing the twin tyrants of the East, the seafarers schedule mirrors the A’s the rest of the way.

The red suited Halos are 70-48 (.593), which puts them on pace for a club record 96 wins. 28-16(.636) coming home gets them to 98. After a horrid start, the Angels have won 63 of 97 (.650). The Angels play the AL East for the rest of August, including 6 on the road with Boston & NY, and 6 with the lowly flat fish – the TB D-Rays. If they play everyone else to form, I think their season will turn on how well they handle the much-improved Orioles in a 6 game home and away, 3 weeks down the road.

The BoSox are 68-48 (.586) and play the toughest schedule down the stretch of the contenders. They are on 95 win pace, and although they are much improved personnel-wise, I don’t see a compelling reason for them to reverse their laggard late-season legacy.

After stranding T Long’s 9th inning leadoff triple last night, the A’s are 68-51 (.571). The A’s need a hot streak of June proportions to snag a seat at the post-season party. The green and gold has the best record in the AL since 5/24, 48-24 (.667) – that includes an incredible 12-0 mark against the NL Central.

I think the A’s need to go 12-4, (now 12-3), during this stretch against the lesser lights. To do it, they will have to be road warriors, as 17 of 22 will be on the road after this home stand. The A’s then finish against the Twins and the AL West – teams that have given the Elephant Herd trouble. 17-11 in September leaves the Athletics with 97 wins. Just outside the money. The A’s have 6 with Seattle and 8 with the Angels left. If they can repeat their September heroics of the past 2 years, the A’s may yet have a shot to fulfill every A’s fans fantasy – sending Jason home early.

0 comments

1 marty { 08.14.02 at 10:55 am }

I’m still sticking with 96 and it might be a game or two lower because these three teams are so competitive that the last 20 games might go 12-8 for the leader. Nice analysis, Dave, thanks.

Marty

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