Marty Lurie Talks San Francisco Giants Baseball
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Home Field Disadvantage



Rick Kaplan

OAKLAND (September 12) – Anonymity and unpredictability often trump celebrity and previous success in the post-season. That’s what makes fall baseball so hard to handicap (predict).

The outcome is a roll of the dice as often as not.

You don’t think so? You said MVP Pat Borders would carry the Blue Jays to victory in the 1992 World Series? And that a virtually unknown Marlin hurler, Josh Beckett, would totally dominate the Yankees in 2003 and win the award for Most Valuable Player?

Click below for more!Maybe you predicted that a Marlins’ rookie, Livan Hernandez, would pitch his way to two wins and the Series MVP, over an offensive juggernaut like the Cleveland Indians in ’97? But did you expect MVP Scott Brosius to lead the Yankees to a title in 1998?

Can we PREDICT who will be hot and who will be not in the post-season?

Impossible.

Can we GUESS about the outcome?

Yes, we can guess.

As I was saying last week, baseball is a funny game.

Actually, I think Joe Garagiola said that.

Or, maybe it was any one of untold thousands of ballplayers who have watched an endless line of journeymen and underdogs be transformed into the unlikely heroes of the fall by improbable scenarios of once-in-a-lifetime catches, timely Texas Leaguers, and unraveling stars.

The other major sports are different. There aren’t as many surprises and twists and turns.

There have been forty Super Bowls. Twenty (20) MVP awards have gone to the winning quarterback, seven to a running back, and five to wide receivers.

That’s 32 of the 40 awards to “skill” positions, and to individuals who were almost always established stars. Predictable.

It’s all about marquee players in the NFL post-season. You can practically count on bumping into a celebrity QB MVP like a Joe Montana or a Tom Brady at Disneyland following their winning performance in the Super Bowl. Even last year’s relatively unknown winner, Hines Ward of the Steelers, is among the all-time leaders in receptions.

In the NBA, predictability, and the control of the game by super-stars, is even more extreme. Michael Jordan won the NBA Finals MVP award six times, from 1992-93 and from 1996-98, with Hakeem Olajuwon taking it in 1994 and 1995. Shaq and Tim Duncan have pretty much shared it since then.

Avery Johnson never won one.

A borderline player or “unknown” never wins the NBA Finals MVP. Surprised?

There are no Ray Knights (1986 Series MVP) or Rick Dempseys (1983) in the NBA, NFL, or NHL. Nowhere else does a Darrel Porter (1982) or a Jose Rijo (1990) materialize out of thin air to suddenly dominate the post-season. In the Super Bowl or NBA finals, you won’t find a slow-footed Ron Swoboda making one of the most unlikely and acrobatic catches in the history of the world, nor does Tony Kubek take a bad hop in the neck that changes the course of the game (and the 1960 Series). A Jermaine Dye (2006) doesn’t emerge anywhere else but in the fall from under the cloud of perpetual injuries and doubting scouts to get a ball through the infield and etch his name forever in Cooperstown.

Only in baseball.

The only thing I feel sure about at this point is that the A’s can’t beat Kenny Rogers, especially at home. And I’m talking, of course, about the Athletics’ home, where Rogers has won 23 of his last 24 decisions.

As for heroes, sometimes an opportunity arises when each and every batter and run is hotly contested, as is the tendency in the post-season.

History says: It probably won’t be the great Jeter, or Pujols, or even Verlander.

The only certainty in baseball is uncertainty.

Last fall it could have been A.J. Pierzynski. This time maybe a Marcus Thames, or a Marco Scutaro. These could be the names this fall.

A Shea Hillenbrand, in front of a healthy Barry Bonds, may see some pitches he can turn on. Or a Chad Gaudin might get a couple of calls.

We’ll find out soon enough. And watch out for those unknown Marlins.

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