Batter up August 19th, 2007

Is it the new drug policy? Are the pitchers getting better? For some reason the season totals for the top home run hitters in baseball is starting to look like the numbers posted in the game from 1950 until 1995.

With less than 25% of the season remaining only A Rod, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, and Ryan Howard look like sure bets to hit 40 home runs or more.

In the AL Justin Morneau, Carlos Pena, Hideki Matsui, and Jermaine Dye should reach the 30-homer plateau.

In the NL, only Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Carlos Lee are locks to go above 30 homers.

The immortal sluggers in baseball history Willie Mays, Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew, and Mike Schmidt could be counted on to knock between 40-45 home runs out each year. When their careers were over their lifetime totals stood well above good home run hitters like Dave Parker, Ron Santo, Boog Powell, George Foster, and Willie Horton a few sluggers who averaged 30- 35 homers per year.

Instead of being in the murky waters of trying to judge the lifetime totals of sluggers from the steroid era, if this trend continues for more than a few years 500 lifetime home runs will once again mean certain induction into the Hall of Fame, thus ending the uncomfortable debate of whether or not Jim Thome or Gary Sheffield is a future Hall of Famer.

The press box debate this week centered on this question: If you had to choose one pitcher to win your most important game of the year who would that pitcher be?

One veteran front office guru chose Minnesota’s Johan Santana simply because he is the best pitcher in the game today. One respected coach chose Arizona’s Brandon Webb because his pitches move ala Greg Maddux in his prime. One broadcaster chose the Padres Jake Peavy because he is usually untouchable for seven innings.

I’ll take Toronto’s Roy Halladay. Even though his stuff isn’t what is used to be, he can go nine. When he is on I think he’s the best money pitcher in baseball today.

With six weeks of the season remaining the teams that have the best starting pitching have the best chance of reaching the playoffs in October.

The Red Sox and Yankees are poised for their usual classic battle down the stretch. Boston’s starting pitching is still better than the aging Yankees staff. Toronto has excellent starting pitching. Frank Thomas is starting to swing the bat, don’t be surprised to see the Blue Jays stay in the fight for the wild card spot. In the end, Boston holds on to win the East.

Detroit has a better team than the Indians and Twins. Cleveland’s offense disappeared last month and hasn’t returned yet. Detroit’s pitching is awful. Cleveland’s starting pitching is capable of winning the division. Here’s a lukewarm vote for the Tigers.

Lack of reliable starting pitching will doom the Mariners postseason hopes.

Seattle needs to corner the market on relievers. The Angels will continue to excel at home. Angels squeak into October.

The Mets will hang on and win the East. Both the Phillies and the Braves pitchers are too inconsistent to pass the New Yorkers no matter how bad the Met ‘pen continues to be.

The Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals will stumble over each other down the stretch. One thing looks certain until Milwaukee’s ace Ben Sheets comes back the Brewers are third in this race.