The formula for success in baseball today requires a steady, deep, reliable bull pen.

As June fades into July, the relievers begin to wear down from overuse during the first half of the year.

I see this pattern develop every season.

The Athletics are a team in danger of falling into the abyss of having overworked relievers as are a few of the other front runners.

Click “Read More” and I’ll tell you what I see.

Let’s start with Oakland. The A’s resurgence has absolutely been grounded in the return to form of their starting rotation.

Things are not as rosy as they appear.

Tim Hudson rarely makes it into the 7th or 8th inning of his starts. He is getting better, but Art Howe needs to go to the pen regularly to try to save Hudson’s efforts.

Mark Mulder, notwithstanding his shut out of Houston last weekend, is a 6-7 inning pitcher right now.

Aaron Harang may pan out and not burn the bull pen, but he looks like a 6-7 inning pitcher if all goes perfectly.

Cory Lidle, same story. After six nail biting innings, the pen better be ready.

Barry Zito is the only A’s starting pitcher who routinely gives the relief corps a break, and even Barry needs 8th inning help on a regular basis.

Art Howe is predictable in that Chad Bradford and Jim Mecir, the two short men from the right side, get the call in the 7th and 8th innings virtually opportunity.

Trouble is, they are getting the call almost every day as the A’s are on a winning tear.

Eventually, Bradford and Mecir will wear out and start coughing up the lead late in the game. Losing games late, takes much away from the effort of the starter as well as the morale of the team.

Mike Fyhrie is virtually useless to the team and his spot would be better served by another right hander who could pitch in short relief.

My suggestion is to go out and get that reliever now before Bradford or Mecir develop the usual arm miseries that befall overworked bull pen pitchers ( both have had medical issues in the past).

Lefties Mike Magnante and Mike Venafro don’t work often enough to merit concern at this point.

Howe has gone to the pen over 195 times in the A’s first 70 games, almost an average of 3 relievers per game.

That’s a lot.

Minnesota has benefited from a reliable pen this year as their starters have been injured forcing inexperienced replacements to go to the hill, hoping to keep the Twins in the game for six innings.

Things have worked out so far, but manager Ron Gardenhire has used his pen a league leading 209 times in 71 games.

Trouble looms large for the Twinkies if they keep up this pattern. Either Brad Radke and Joe Mays return from injuries ready to go or this team will suffer through the Dog Days of August.

Boston, New York (assuming they make it through their trip to Colorado) and Seattle have not abused their pen so far this season.

The three leaders have kept their relief totals at 132 for Boston, Seattle 144, and New York 150.

If the starting pitching holds up for the three above mentioned teams, the health of the bull pen shouldn’t be a problem late in the season.

Anaheim has gone to the pen 169 times in 68 games. With veteran starters in the rotation, the Angels pen should not be overworked this summer assuming the vets hang in and do their job.

To me, the A’s and Twins should be looking to bolster their pens right away before an emergency situation arises.

In the NL, with all the pinch hitting late in the game, good relievers are at a premium.

The Giants have only used the pen 156 times in 69 games, a credit to good starting pitching and the patience of the manager Dusty Baker.

This will serve the Giants well later in the year. The Giants have severe limitations on their bench which will hurt them during the summer when the vets( Bonds, Santiago, Shinjo, and Sanders in particular) need time off.

The Dodgers have had great starting pitching all year, fueling their rise to be within strkiing distance of Arizona. Jim Tracy has used the pen 172 times in 70 games, not an insignificant number, but one to be watched as the summer moves on, since the Dodger rotation is mostly untested over the stress of a full season.

Even with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling eating up innings, Arizona nees help in their overworked pen. Bob Brenly has used his relievers 179 times 70 games. If by chance the big two don’t keep pitching deep into the game, this pen will crumble quickly.

Arizona should go out right now and get some reenforcements for the pen because they will need them later on this year.

As good as Atlanta’s pitching is right now, Bobby Cox has gone for help 205 times in 71 games.

Frank Robinson in Montreal 212 times in 70 games.

Good luck to both these managers around August 15th.

Tony LaRussa in St. Louis and Bob Boone in Cincy are heading down a dangerous path as well.

The Cards have used the pen 191 times in 69 games and the Reds 199 times in a like number of games.

Without any serious opposition to either the Cards or the Reds in this division, the bull pen situation is worth watching when evaluating the chances of these two teams to hang on and win the Central.

The Reds crush weaker teams and the rest of the summer will play within this poor division, so don’t count them out just yet even though their offense and starting pitching has disappeared lately.

The Mets have a decent pen and it will be a strength in the second half. Bobby Valentine has used the relief crew 188 times in 70 games, a high number, but he has a deep pen so the work has been spread out.

I still say, the Mets may be amazin’ in the second half.

So, there you have it. In today’s game the bull pen has a hand in just about 98 % of a team’s games won or lost.

The smart GM’s will look to fortify the pen first before filling any other needs.

Let’s see who makes the first move.