Marty Lurie Talks San Francisco Giants Baseball
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Baseball Passes the Quarter Pole, Real Race Ahead


It’s interesting to take a look at baseball in May, over the course of the game’s history, charting a team’s chances in spring rarely gives us a true read on how the race will end in October.

But, you can’t get to the finish line in first place unless you are showing some signs that you have what it takes to make it over the long haul.

So, any surprises so far? Using the immortal words that Jeff Kent used when answering the media’s questions, “You bet”.

Click below and find out how the races in the AL stack up.The Mariners are playing excellent baseball. I didn’t think they had the starting pitching to get off to such a good start. Joel Pineiro has been very consistent, six to seven innings per start, Jamie Moyer is beating the bad teams with regularity, Ryan Franklin quietly has beaten the teams in the West, Freddy Garcia is a problem, and Gil Meche has been the ace of the staff.

Without any major injuries, Seattle can hang in there because they are winning outside the division and they have a first class bull pen.

The Angels are a gritty club. I still think the burden of being the defending champs is something that will ultimately hurt them. They can’t sneak up on anyone this year, they will need quality hitting and consistent starting pitching and so far it isn’t there. Not having Darin Erstad in the lineup is a tremendous loss.

The A’s have the deepest rotation in the game. The big three will have at least two 20 game winners. It is hard to see the A’s not making the playoffs once the pitching completely kicks in, in late June and July. Ted Lilly has been so so and the fifth starting spot has been adequate. The real issue for Oakland is the strength of its set up men. Jim Mecir, Ricardo Rincon, and Chad Bradford (he needs to last all year and not disappear in September) don’t give Ken Macha easy eighth innings.

The GM will definitely look to upgrade the pen in July. Count on it.

The A’s offense will produce enough to win. Of course, I’ve said for two years that they still lack the one real mature hitter to carry them over the top. Miguel Tejada emerged last season, but the issue of free agency is wearing him down. Eric Chavez is not the answer in the third spot. The A’s have to pray Erubiel Durazo just stays healthy, if he does then they have 100 RBI’s from the big DH.

All in all, with the big three doing their thing, Keith Foulke steady in the ninth, and some timely hitting from everyone else, the A’s are still the class of the West.

I don’t think anyone will concede the West just yet, this divsion still has a long way to go. Keeping away from key injuries is especially important for Oakland and Seattle.

Minnesota is where it should be. Relying on the bull pen, good defense, scrappy play and a deep pitching staff with good starters. Should be enough to stay close to the lead all summer. Kenny Rogers has been fine so far, but he has a tendency to fade down the stretch. Rick Reed will need a big second half. Brad Radke looks all right, and Joe Mays is fine. Somehow, I think the Twins need either one more hitter or pitcher to make things comfortable. Minnesota misses Eric Milton and it will be more obvious next month.

Kansas City is doing it with mirrors. It’s great to see them back, but they are starting to look shaky. Their lefthanded hitting is poor, the bullpen overworked already, and their starting rotation will be fine through June, but will wear down.

Jeremy Affeldt is the real deal, but as any young pitcher, needs more seasoning on the big stage. Same for the rest of the staff, but you know what happens if a team hangs around into August, confidence rises and baseball dreams begin to take shape, it’s highly unlikely for KC, but not impossible.

I guess the White Sox will have a new manger in July or August. Chicago has the pitching to stay in the race, but their defense kills them. Of course, much is made of their righty dominated lineup which is not hitting right now.

With Bartolo Colon, Mark Buehrle, and Esteban Loiaza, the Sox will stay close forcing management to sack Jerry Manuel thinking a new manager will make the difference, when in reality better offense and defense is what is needed.

Anyway, Chicago’s inability to beat Minnesota right now, head to head, will be a variable to watch when they meet again.

The Yankees and Red Sox will fight it out all summer. Boston can hit, they just fall apart as a team as soon as the seventh inning comes around. They must bring in one of the established closers when they become available in July, this will allow the rest of the sorry bullpen to ease into set up rolls.

The Red Sox hit all game long especially late in the game when they overcome the blown leads that the pen has foisted upon the team, but it is a one heckuva way to live.

New York looks old to me. Trades are coming. Hideki Matsui is a nice player with as much impact on this team as Terrence Long would have if he was a Yankee. At some point Jason Giambi’s physical woes will need to be addressed. The Yankees are vulnerable to good teams and lucky for them only Toronto and Boston can hang with them in the East.

Toronto can hit. If they would aggresively get some starting pitching they could challenge the big two in the East. Cliff Politte is now the closer, we’ll see how this premier set up man adjusts to the pressure role of finishing games.

Something about Toronto I like, I’m just not sure what it is, but they may be more of a factor this summer than anyone realizes.

Maybe it’s Roy Hallady and their potent offense, but watch them carefully.

The East will be one race that will be close all summer and may have a surprise at the end.

Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Texas, Cleveland and

Detroit are in the league, but not worthy of analysis other than to say Texas will be a real pain to the rest of the league once the weather heats up in Arlington.

So, at the one quarter pole, I’m not sure I can give you the four playoff teams with any certainty, and that’s a good sign of things to come.

NL Tomorrow.

0 comments

1 Anonymous { 05.20.03 at 4:52 pm }

Marty, I think one of your real strengths is being able to analyze the long haul that pro baseball teams go through. Excellent views on the American League.

With regard to the A’s:

I definitely think that when J. Dye comes back he should platoon with T. Long in right as both Byrnes and Singleton can do the job against both rightys and leftys. Let Long and Dye determine who ultimately gets the bulk of the playing time in right and who ends up as a late inning defensive replacement. I say this knowing that both are making Starter money. Just not sure they deserve it!

Next, I think the A’s could upgrade their pen and starters by moving Lilly to the pen (in place of Bowie) and bringing up Harang from Sacto to break up all the Leftys in the rotation. I feel that teams, after seeing two leftys in a row, have an advantage against that third lefty in a 3 game series. Besides, Lilly still seems like a choker to me. Only flaw in my idea is I’m not sure Lilly would be an improvement in the pen over Bowie.

Finally:

At seasons end, try and dump Dye’s salary as well as Mecir’s and/or Long and resign Tejada with the savings.

This will open up opportunities for Piatt and Grabowski while keeping payroll at current levels.

Thanks Marty for having this forum to express our views. Go A’s

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