When I was growing up in the fifties in Brooklyn, the baseball writers pointed out that the teams leading the league (no divisions back then) would be the ones to win the pennant that October.

This year the axiom looks like it will hold true as I don’t see many second half surprises on the horizon.

Can the Mets get back in the race? How about the Angels, can they beat Seattle? What about the A’s,Giants, Astros, and White Sox?

Let’s see which July Fourth leaders are most secure.

Click “read more”The Braves are rolling towards another NL East title. Greg Maddux gives Bobby Cox six good innings each time out on the hill. Tom Glavine may win the Cy Young this year. Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, and Andruw Jones have it together. The only thing that can stop the Braves is injuries to their most productive players. Rafael Furcal is making errors at an alarming rate, shortstop is one position that must be upgraded on this pitching rich team.

The Mets are not making it happen on the mound, on the field, or at the bat. The Expos traded for a starting pitcher when they really needed a closer. The Marlins are on the verge of trading Cliff Floyd which will deflate their hopes. The Phillies don’t have second half success written on their uniforms.

The Cardinals have the look of a team in trouble. Their rotation is a mess. Jason Isringhausen’s arm is starting to bother him just as it did in Oakland. JD Drew is hurt again, can Jim Edmonds be far behind? Albert Pujols is a solid player.

Houston is starting to hit a little. Carlos Hernandez, the lefty, is hurt. This team has a chance to make a run. The Cards are in a lousy division which helps. If Cincy actually had some money and used it wisely, it could make a deal or two and win this division. The Cubs (my pick) are not going anywhere.

The West is up for grabs. The Dodgers are the holiday leader. Eric Gagne finally blew a save last night when Jim Tracy went to the righty in the eighth inning. The Diamondbacks have three (Johnson, Schilling and Batista) pitchers who can get the job done, they need a fourth.

The Giants need a hitter, a pitcher, and need to play better. Jay Witasick will get a shot to replace Livan Hernandez in the rotation before too long. If I was LA, I would enjoy the holiday, they may not be in first on Labor Day.

The Yanks and Boston are duking it out for the lead. NY leads now, but anything can happen here. It may depend on who beats up the weaklings of this division the most. More trades and acquisitions are on the way for these two money gluttons.

Minnesota may just hang in. They play great defense, have a solid, but overworked bull pen, team speed, and confident players. The White Sox can hit. Oh, did I tell you the White Sox can hit. I haven’t seen a team yet who won their division without quality pitching. If the GM could get together with a contender that had some extra pitching and needed some hitting, things could get interesting by September in the Central.

Seattle is in their familiar perch atop the West. The Angels will be tested when they play the Mariners shortly. Something tells me the Angels are going to stick around. They hit and they pitch. By being in the race on July 4th, they have shown that they are the surprise team of the league this year. The A’s pitching is beautiful to watch, their lack of a true DH is not. In this league, the DH is a big time hitter in the line up. It’s a gimme that this guy crushes the ball. Dave Justice doesn’t. The A’s outfield is a weak link. The schedule favors Oakland for the next month. Billy Beane will get offensive help. He loves that part of the game and must be going nuts watching Jermaine Dye play at 60% capacity, the DH spot produce absolutely no extra base hits, and his young outfielders fail to make the jump as quality major league hitters. The A’s don’t bunt, steal, or do any of the things good teams do in close games. They better get some offense for the middle of the order or else the best rotation in baseball will be wasted.

The leaders should enjoy the spoils of being on top on the Fourth. It’s a marker of success and more times than not foretells a post sesason berth.

In 1983 Yankee Dave Righetti threw a no hitter on July fourth, George Steinbrenner’s birthday, in 1976, Tim McCarver lost a grand slam when he passed Garry Maddox on the bases as he watched his homer leave the park.

Today, Cleveland’s Jim Thome will hit a homer for the eighth consecutive game. You can count on it.

Baseball is a crazy game and July Fourth has always been a special day.