Marty Lurie Talks San Francisco Giants Baseball
//

With 100 games Left in the Season, Here's the Magic Number

The baseball season has certain markers along the way.

100 games to go has always been one for me.

The A’s wake up this morning 32-30 (100 left in the schedule), six games behind Seattle and five behind Anaheim.

The Giants have 101 games left in the season, sporting a 35-26 mark, 3 1/2 games behind the Diamondbacks and 1 1/2 back of LA.

How many wins will it take over the last 100 games to get into the playoffs?

I’ll tell you.

Last year the A’s were 31-31 at this point, but couldn’t see the Mariners who were close to lapping the field with 100 games to play in the season.

The A’s set their sights on the Wild Card and got there by winning 71 of the remaining 100 for a total of 102 wins.

A second half record that happens once every 60 years or so.

Even with the teams resugence over the past three weeks, the Athletics are still not firing on all cylinders.

Art Howe employs different batting orders on a daily basis.

There is no leadoff hitter within 100 miles of the A’s roster.

Tim Hudson, even with his fine game Sunday, still hasn’t found his touch on the hill.

Mark Mulder asks the stadium officials to turn off the radar gun before each start at home.

I can only surmise that Mulder still isn’t comfortable on the mound.

The A’s will only go as far as their starting pitching will carry them.

With all that in mind how about Seattle?

Seattle is in need of more offense to comfortably maintain its pace leading the West.

Only Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer are holding up their end of the pitching rotation.

Seattle is 38-24.

I see Seattle going 57-43 the rest of the season.

95 wins.

Anaheim hasn’t hit the toughest part of its schedule yet.

The Angels are 36-24 with 102 to go.

Anaheim can easily slip to 55-47 over their remaining games.

91 wins for Anaheim.

I think 96 victories will win this division.

The A’s must play 64-36 ball over the last 3 1/2

months to beat Seattle.

Injuries will play a big role as well as trades.

If Seattle comes up with Jeff Weaver from Detroit or Bartolo Colon from Cleveland, then its pitching will be very tough to beat.

I will say this, if Edgar Martinez doesn’t come back at full strength, Seattle will be vulnerable in September.

This could knock the winning number down to 91 or 92 wins.

Lou Piniella needs Martinez’ bat big time.

Can the A’s get to 96?

Perhaps.

As the weather gets warmer, the youth of this team will shine through as a strength.

If healthy, Mulder, Hudson, Zito, Lidle, and Harang are capable of carrying the A’s through any series.

Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Terrence Long, Ramon Hernandez, and Jermaine Dye should have better numbers over the rest of the season.

This team is younger and stronger than their AL West rivals.

Believe me it counts when the summer kicks in.

What makes the A’s shaky is the inconsistency of youth.

What makes the A’s dangerous is once the young studs put it all together they can carry this team.

The schedule favors the A’s over the next seven weeks.

A steady diet of teams they should beat.

If they head into August within 5 games or less of the leaders, it will mean the team is healthy and then watch out.

Who will win the wild card?

I still think the wild card winner will come from the AL East.

Even with Pedro Martinez’ shoulder acting up, Boston still has a dynamite team on the field.

The Red Sox are 40-20. It would be hard to see them winning less than 95 games in that division with Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Toronto undoubtedly losing interest as the summer rolls on.

The Yankees will do whatever it takes to keep pace with the Red Sox. If they start to fall behind Boston, George will authorize GM Brian Cashman to find whatever replacemants the team needs.

They may need a pitcher or two, but short of the division patsies keeping the race close, I see Boston and New York finishing with at least 95-97 wins this season.

The best shot for the A’s and the Angels, catch the Mariners.

The Giants face a tough challenge as well.

The Giants need offense.

At some point GM Brian Sabean will need to bring in reinforcements for the struggling batters.

With 101 games to go the Giants will need to

win 58 of the remaining games to get to 93 wins.

The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks will beat each other enough to keep the magic number for this division under 95.

The Giants have 52 home games left on the schedule.

35 home wins would seem to be necessary.

SF struggles on the road. If they take care of business at Pac Bell, then a 23-26 mark would be all right away from the Bay Area.

Funny, but the six interleague games between the A’s and the Giants will have a bearing on the outcome of both races.

No one is going to run away with either division, when it is all said and done, we will look back on the Bay Area series between the A’s and the Giants as games that decided the fate of both clubs.

Arizona is the team to beat in the West.

With 100 to go, they have 39 wins. If they play .550 ball, that adds up to 94 victories.

Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling will start 40 of the remaning games.

The two veteran aces have a heavy burden to carry through the Dog Days of August.

This race is far from over. I think the Giants and the Dodgers will be right there in September based on their deep pitching staffs.

The wild Card will come out of the NL West, similar to the AL last year in this respect.

Whoever comes in second in the West will have one helluva pitching staff and a real chance to advance in the playoffs.

In either case, 93 wins will get you into the playoffs.

Now, when you check the standings each morning, check the loss column because the total will tell you how many games your team can ultimately win.

Once you lose a game, you can’t get it back.

That’s baseball.

0 comments

1 Anonymous { 06.10.02 at 2:41 pm }

The A’s will reach post season ONLY if they trade for some middle relivers . There is not a single solid middle reliever in the pen.

You must log in to post a comment.